At an Asia Society debate on US-China rivalry, the discussion turned to whether China is expanding too far, too fast. Kishore Mahbubani answered by redrawing the map of the question. The real story, he argued, sits in Southeast Asia, a region the West rarely studies and often underestimates.
Price makers and price takers
Mahbubani opens with a blunt premise: a benevolent great power is an oxymoron. Great powers act in their own interest, and geopolitics sorts the world into price makers and price takers. Small states survive by understanding which one they are and adapting accordingly.
The most diverse region on Earth
He then turns to Orville Schell and says he is being unfair to the Southeast Asian states. The region holds around 660 million people, roughly double the population of the United States, and Mahbubani calls it the most diverse region on the planet. Muslims, Christians, Buddhists, Hindus, Confucianists, and communists live side by side across its ten member states.
Southeast Asia was once called the Balkans of Asia, a region expected to fracture into conflict. Mahbubani points out that it has not had a major war since 1979, a stretch of more than 45 years.
ASEAN’s hidden genius
He credits ASEAN for that record. Its strength lies in managing differences and adapting to pressure, and its convening power proves the point: American presidents, Chinese leaders, and Australian prime ministers all travel to its summits. Mahbubani closes with an invitation to the West: come to ASEAN, drop the condescension, and learn how to avoid wars.
Why it matters for Asia
As US-China rivalry sharpens, Southeast Asian governments carry the heaviest exposure. They trade heavily with China, keep close security ties with the United States, and work to stay on good terms with both. ASEAN’s habits of consultation and consensus give its members room to manoeuvre between the two powers.
The record has strains. Myanmar’s civil war continues, and the 2025 border fighting between Thailand and Cambodia ended in a ceasefire brokered by Malaysia, then ASEAN’s chair. That ceasefire itself showed the regional machinery Mahbubani describes at work.
Can ASEAN’s model hold as great-power pressure grows? Watch the full exchange and judge for yourself.
Further reading
Kishore Mahbubani and Jeffery Sng, The ASEAN Miracle: A Catalyst for Peace
Kishore Mahbubani, The Asian 21st Century (free, open access): https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-6811-1
Source: Asia Society Policy Institute and Perry World House, University of Pennsylvania. Moderated by Rorry Daniels. Link to full debate
