A common assumption holds that China and the United States will both come through their rivalry intact, and that the real question is where it leaves everyone else. At the 2026 New Enlightenment Conference at Panmure House, George Yeo, Singapore’s former foreign minister, questioned that starting point. He is unsure about America, and he reframes the contest around two forces: energy and institutions.
Doubts about America
Asked where the rivalry leaves Europe, Singapore, the Middle East, and India, Yeo points first to the United States. He sees relative decline, a painful strategic retreat, and an internal struggle that remains unresolved.
Energy decides power
In the age of AI, Yeo argues, electricity is the foundation of national strength. China now generates more power than the United States and the European Union combined, and the gap keeps widening. China builds vast wind farms along the Taiwan Strait while approvals for American data centres stall in permitting. Europe’s energy crisis, in his view, is self-inflicted. India, with its population and its solar ambitions, is on course to become an AI power, and he sees openings for Brazil and Africa too.
The visible hand
Yeo draws on Adam Smith, the conference’s patron figure, to make his deeper point. Smith wrote of the visible hand as well as the invisible one: the state, whose institutions shape what a society can build. Every institution eventually ages and stiffens, Yeo argues, and nations with rigid institutions get stuck, whatever their wealth or technology.
Why it matters for Asia
Across Asia, governments are racing to add generating capacity for data centres and industry. Yeo’s argument suggests the winners will be the countries that can build power plants, grids, and approvals quickly. For Southeast Asian economies courting AI investment, the speed of their energy planning and permitting may matter as much as tax incentives.
Which nations will keep their institutions young enough to adapt? Watch the full exchange and judge for yourself.
Further reading
- Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations
Source: George Yeo, New Enlightenment Conference 2026, Panmure House, Edinburgh.
